Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 73030.860561 77187.967594 81350.122438 85826.991707 90503.167004 95240.350474 100399.075246
2025-12-28 66726.290470 73091.524850 79646.857310 86893.187796 94669.448286 102754.364547 111786.232387
2026-01-04 62191.979239 70083.251792 78392.923183 87776.287132 98057.901771 108961.486756 121379.212008
2026-01-11 58531.350970 67554.090115 77234.203598 88360.551834 100763.367367 114131.341133 129595.716415
2026-01-18 55260.366843 65143.134991 75921.809372 88504.463363 102741.614233 118302.613404 136546.850205
2026-01-25 52532.112770 63124.613336 74849.990404 88729.223591 104643.437370 122253.743033 143145.474471
2026-02-01 49973.555632 61130.213194 73651.126520 88662.985870 106086.691915 125585.743299 148966.727263
2026-02-08 48162.201838 59885.141162 73207.977704 89368.197917 108332.252019 129771.165878 155725.350179
2026-02-15 46124.873522 58264.126127 72228.025789 89355.594301 109666.656267 132850.020459 161170.850599
2026-02-22 44966.116124 57621.977391 72340.848155 90576.978419 112407.396982 137540.148788 168490.731455
2026-03-01 43690.086070 56771.369330 72147.285353 91382.747406 114618.261307 141589.019563 175058.492098
2026-03-08 42050.926116 55405.625299 71269.571921 91306.833344 115727.453054 144303.360636 180031.881066
2026-03-15 40654.239946 54301.688558 70682.108460 91566.323063 117240.539761 147518.914027 185651.256185
2026-03-22 39913.740214 53985.881573 71037.142560 92963.292556 120131.574087 152399.568454 193304.474254
2026-03-29 39031.172357 53451.147131 71088.212049 93958.895199 122516.825885 156670.345945 200241.938359
2026-04-05 38034.404838 52729.997480 70871.176974 94590.790226 124433.498838 160365.246950 206490.720029
2026-04-12 36877.945548 51760.033686 70302.073995 94746.170596 125731.953395 163289.928595 211798.946712
2026-04-19 35824.346398 50886.658653 69822.275510 94984.531684 127111.884194 166303.923397 217220.871373
2026-04-26 34692.518350 49871.934283 69126.139026 94914.668441 128077.953811 168790.436256 221988.594722
2026-05-03 33968.932192 49374.765576 69077.992367 95660.262012 130068.981455 172555.219838 228363.626552
2026-05-10 32964.341822 48467.362102 68464.848381 95646.946484 131069.929873 175068.461401 233174.857274
2026-05-17 32542.096415 48333.616922 68857.010759 96938.067223 133749.039544 179708.767743 240690.118344
2026-05-24 31964.564485 47967.134898 68924.090704 97789.745604 135854.986960 183628.723678 247315.651929